Knowbeforethe buzzer.
A machine-learning model that calls who wins and why, with the best price on the board, before tip-off.
This is logistically
your best bet.
The sportsbook brings four things to every game. Now you have all four.
- 01
The book: A pricing model on every game.
The modelA win chance on every game.
Trained on a dozen seasons and held up against the book’s price, so you can see where the two disagree.
67.2% in a sealed test · always picking home: 55.1%
One game, e.g.gap +5The book53%Our model58% - 02
The book: Every rival book’s number, all day.
The line shopEvery price on one screen.
The major US books side by side with the margin taken out, so you know the best number before you bet.
Free with an account
One side, four books, e.g.- Book A−115
- Book B−110
- Book C−105best
- Book D−112
- 03
The book: A desk of analysts.
Ask the Buddy · ProAn analyst who shows his work.
Ask who wins, why, and what it would do. It looks the numbers up in our database before it answers.
Every number comes with where it came from
> who wins tonight, and why?
- ↳ looked up: the model’s read
- ↳ looked up: injuries, rest
- ↳ looked up: every book’s price
then it answers, with its sources
- 04
The book: A record you never get to see.
The track recordOurs is public. All of it.
Every pick is logged before tip-off and graded after, losses included, by rules we published before the first game.
Public on GitHub- rules
- EVALUATION_PLAN_v1
- published
- 2026-10-15
- first game
- 2026-10-20
- commit
- 8a73f66
Measured once, in a sealed pre-registered evaluation, on 2,597 games from 2024-25 and 2025-26 — none in the training data. 95% CI 65.32–68.93%. Statistically ahead of both our previous model (65.8%, p = 0.041) and the better-record baseline (65.3%, p = 0.039). Accuracy is not profitability: that test measured no return; the Track Record measures it live, with its range, from opening night 2026-27.
HOW A PICK
IS MADE.
The same path for every game on the board, in this order. Each step leaves something you can check.
- 01
The archive
Every box score since 1996-97, regular season and playoffs, rebuilt in our own database and brought up to date every morning.
Box scores since 1996-97 - 02
The model's read
A model gives each team its chance to win. Tested on 2,597 games it never saw, it picked the winner 67.2% of the time; always taking the home team got 55.1%.
Moneyline only - 03
The market's price
That chance goes up against the sportsbook's price. The gap between the two is the expected value, and the Line Shop shows where each book has the game.
Model vs. the book - 04
Logged before tip-off
Every pick is written down before the game starts. Each day's fingerprint goes on a public GitHub page, so no pick can be changed afterwards.
Fingerprinted daily - 05
Graded after the buzzer
Each pick is graded against the final score, wins and losses alike, on a Track Record anyone can open, no account needed.
Every pick, gradedSee the Track Record
What you get to do with it
The questions bettors ask every night, and the tool that answers each one. All of them come with a free account except Ask the Buddy, which is Pro.
- Shot QualityFree account
Every shot priced by where it came from, so a hot streak and a run of easy looks stop looking the same.
Open Shot Quality
THIS ISN'T A MOCKUP.
Everything below was read from our own database by your browser, just now.
- Next.js
- React
- TypeScript
- Tailwind CSS
- GSAP
- Three.js
- Radix UI
- Supabase
- Stripe
- Google Gemini
- Python
- FastAPI
- XGBoost
- scikit-learn
- pandas
- NumPy
- SciPy
- SQLite
- Blender
- Docker
- GitHub
ASK ANYTHING.
ABOUT ANYBODY.
Throw it the question you've never been able to settle. It doesn't make numbers up, it looks them up, and shows you where each one came from.
Smarter decisions, not louder ones.
BUILT FROM LOVE FOR THE GAME
I didn't start this as a business. I started it because I'm the guy who watches a game and can't stop asking why — why that lineup died in the third quarter, why the line moved two points at noon, why the team everyone loves keeps losing the same way. Basketball taught me rhythm, discipline, and how to trust the details. The details are where the truth lives.
When I fell into coding and AI, it felt like the same obsession wearing different clothes. A box score is just a story written in numbers. A model is just a way of reading thousands of those stories at once. I built this thing at night, piece by piece — the database, the model, the math — because I wanted the tool I could never find: one place that respects the game and respects the numbers.
So this is my promise with Betting Buddy: no fake win rates, no guru talk, nothing I can't show you the math for. Every prediction we make gets logged before the game and graded after it, where anyone can see it. If it helps you love the game deeper and think about it sharper — that's the whole point. Everything else is noise.
PICK YOUR
DEPTH.
- FreeThe stats library and the Track Record.
- Pro+ the model’s picks and Ask the Buddy.
- Elite+ bet sizing and your own betting record.
- No fake scarcity
- Cancel anytime, yourself
- Every pick graded in public
- Stats free with an account
FREE
A free account. Free forever.
- Full basketball reference library — leaders, box scores, standings
- Game Finder, draft classes, franchise history, awards and splits
- The track record: every model pick logged before the game, shown once it starts, graded after
- Live scores, shot charts and passing charts
- Analysis dashboards — value, pulse, injuries and dunk scores
- Ask The Buddy — AI analyst wired to live odds, teams and playersPRO ONLY✕
- 60 questions a day, including 10 Deep Dives (the slower, more thorough mode)PRO ONLY✕
- The model's pick, win probability and expected value on every listed gamePRO ONLY✕
PRO
Ask the model, not the internet.
- Everything in Free
- Ask The Buddy — AI analyst wired to live odds, teams and players
- 60 questions a day, including 10 Deep Dives (the slower, more thorough mode)
- The model's pick, win probability and expected value on every listed game
- Chat history saved to your account and searchable across sessions
- Bet sizing: the Kelly stake whenever the model's probability beats the price, on Today's Picks and in the chatELITE ONLY✕
- The parlay checker: any ticket graded in the chat for expected value, break-even and correlation riskELITE ONLY✕
- The bet tracker: log bets or import a slip screenshot, and see your record and whether you beat the closing lineELITE ONLY✕
ELITE
How much to bet, and how you are doing.
- Everything in Pro
- Bet sizing: the Kelly stake whenever the model's probability beats the price, on Today's Picks and in the chat
- The parlay checker: any ticket graded in the chat for expected value, break-even and correlation risk
- The bet tracker: log bets or import a slip screenshot, and see your record and whether you beat the closing line
- The edge audit: whether your record is skill or luck, by the same kind of test our public record uses, where your edge is, and whether you chase losses
- The bankroll stress test: your own record replayed over 2,000 seasons, with your real chance of falling to half your bankroll
- 150 Ask The Buddy questions a day, with unlimited Deep Dives
- A direct line to the founder: questions and feature requests read first, answered by the person who built it
- New dashboards open to Elite first, before everyone else
- Locked-in rate: your price stays put for as long as you stay subscribed
HOW THE ENGINE
DOES THE MATH.
The questions people ask before they trust a betting tool, answered plainly.
Nobody can promise that, and we don't. The model picks winners at a measured rate (67.2% in a sealed test of 2,597 games, against 55.1% for always taking the home team), but picking winners is not the same as beating the price, and profit was not part of that test. From opening night 2026-27 the Track Record measures it in public, one unit a pick, with its range, whatever it shows. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Betting with a limit →It was measured once, in a sealed, pre-registered test on 2,597 games from 2024-25 and 2025-26, all played after training ended: 67.2% of moneylines right, against 55.1% for always picking home and 65.3% for picking the better record. That test is spent; nothing is re-tuned against it.
Yes. Every pick is written down before tip-off, and each day's fingerprint goes on a public GitHub page, so no pick can be changed afterwards. After the game it is graded on the Track Record, wins and losses alike, and anyone can open it, no account needed.
A free account opens the full stats library, the tools and live scores; the Track Record is open to everyone. Pro adds the model's picks, its win probability and expected value, and Ask the Buddy. Elite adds bet sizing, the parlay checker and your own bet tracker.
Compare the plans →Who wins: the moneyline. We withdrew our over/under pick on 19 September 2026 because that model never passed a sealed test, and there is no spread pick. The market's totals and spreads are still shown, as facts about the market.
Box scores, advanced stats, standings and tracking data refresh every morning from the league's official stats. Injuries and league news update through the day, and live scores update during games.
We check the sportsbooks through the day and store a new price only when a line changes. A game shows movement only when its line really moved, and the opening line is the first price we captured, never an inferred one.
Yes. Change or cancel Pro or Elite from your account page whenever you like; your plan runs to the end of the period you paid for, with no penalty.
The math will not win every night.
It shows its work on every one.